Is the US in a recession?

Tony Phyrillas writes that the U.S. is not in a recession. John Micek jokes about Phyrillas swallowing Bush's rhetoric. Of course Tony has the evidence, whereas John is, well, good at making jokes.

The unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons fell in April (the third time in 4 months), and the the labor force particpation has been constant. In terms of jobs, the household series (which accounts for self-employed, farmers, and household workers), reports a gain in April, as does the employer survey without "seasonal adjustments". Only when adjusting for the season do we see a job loss in April.



Carpe Diem also notes that real GPD increased in the first quarter, 362,000 jobs were added in April in the household series, and the odds of recession at InTrade dropped from 60% to 30% in past few days.