When is a college basketball game "over"?

If you like sports and you like math then Bill James's calculator to determine when a college basketball game is out of reach should be interesting (if not, then go to this story on Hillary's health care proposal).

This article was pointed out in wake of Billy Packer declaring "this game is over" in the UNC-Kansas game Saturday with a full 27 minutes to go (Note: the game was not close to "over" based on the formula, and as UNC closed the gap to single digits, Packer spent much of the second half pretending he could not recollect saying the game was over).